Nigeria And The Regime Change Agenda

             Many Nigerians regard US as a friend and partner in progress in regional, continental and global affairs. The interest of Washington in the growth and development of democracy in Nigeria is therefore taken as given and welcomed.
The US has shown more than cursory interest in Nigeria’s election process. It has been involved in series of training for election officials, provision of election logistics and holding workshops for journalists on coverage of elections. It is one country that will send large personnel to monitor the election in Nigeria. It diplomats have been holding series of meetings with officials of the Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). These are indeed welcomed and acceptable.


Nevertheless, it is fair to say that President Goodluck Jonathan has demonstrated to all Nigerians and indeed to the world that he is not determined to hold power at all costs. He has also show little interest in influencing election results to favour his own People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In fact, his own election in 2011 was adjudged to be the most credible and less controversial of such excercises in the country, because he was determined to ensure that voter’s sovereignty was upheld.

The Jonathan administration has provided the opposition parties greater latitude to operate more than any administration in the history of Nigeria. There are no political prisoners in Nigeria and nobody is being prosecuted for his political beliefs. There are no cases of political assassinations in Nigeria under the Jonathan administration as was the case with the garrisome democracy that the country passed through before 2007.

It is on record that Jonathan signed into law the Electoral Act 2010. The INEC has not been hindered in its function or denied of funding. The Freedom of Information Act was signed in 2011, to strengthen the democratic processes and to promote greater transparency in Nigeria. The FOI had been in the cooler for 11 years, but it’s coming into existence has given the media and members of the civil society greater access to information. Under the Jonathan administration, judiciary has not been brought under any pressure to perform its statutory functions in civil and electoral matters.



VICTIMS OF VILE PROPAGANDA

This background is important in order to understand the gravity of the vile propaganda of the fifth columnists in Nigeria and foreign collaborators in relation to the activities of the leading opposition party in Nigeria, All Progressives Congress, APC, and the United States whose agenda seem larger than holding a credible election in Nigeria come March 28 and April 11, 2015. That is the disposition of US government and its diplomats to the political development in Nigeria.

It is now obvious that the Americans are interested in regime change in Nigeria pushing through the APC to achieve its goal of coming to power through the back door.

It is surprising that the US would have welcomed an election where 31% of the registered voters were disenfranchised. We believe in the sovereignty of the voter and also believe that democracy is beyond voting at elections but giving Nigerians the capacity to improve on the human condition. We believe in change that brings goals.

The administration of Jonathan obviously incurred the wrath of the US when it signed into law the Same-Sex Prohibition Act against all pressure from Washington and its allies, who claimed that the bill was in violation of the Fundamental Human Rights of the LGBT community in Nigeria.

Since then the relationship between the Jonathan administration and the US government has been on a nose dive.  It was not a coincidence that leading American politicians have become highly critical of the Jonathan administration.

Mrs. Hillary Clinton, who, as Secretary of State, was full of praises for the administration when she visited Nigeria in 2012, became a bitter critic of the same administration in 2014. Senator John McCain, Mr. John Kerry and President Barrack Obama have all shown hostile attitude to the administration of Jonathan.

Even the US President, Barrack Obama, who advocated, in Ghana, that what Africa requires is not strong men but strong institutions, has become drawn into the idea that what Nigeria needs in the 21st century is a former military dictator as a transformed democrat.

For the US and its allies, change means regime change disguised in the façade of promoting democracy. The US is interested in replacing a liberal democracy with a jackboot dictator with horrible human rights record simply because General Muhammadu Buhari has been projected as the strong man who will fight corruption.

Key issues listed in the Bi-National Commission between Nigeria and the US were put on hold. The US has a more fundamental interest in pushing for a regime change agenda regardless of the fact that Buhari has gory human rights records as a former military dictator and the presidential candidate of the APC which has promised to fight corruption and insecurity better than the ruling PDP.



OIL DIPLOMACY

Since 2010, when the Federal Government signed agreement with the Chinese to build three refineries in Lagos, Kebbi and Bayelsa states, the US has been very uncomfortable with Nigeria opening up the oil sector for the Chinese to come in. The proposed refineries were expected to produce 900, 000 bpd to double the existing 450, 000 from the poorly functioning refineries in the country. More irksome to the US is the decision of the Jonathan administration to allow the state-run Chinese National Offshore Oil Corp to participate in the exploring of 29 offshore oil fields which the West dominated IOCs have been dragging their foot on entering into agreement with Nigeria.

The Chinese are expected to commit about $50 billion investment into this venture. The Federal Government has initiated series of reforms that are aimed at strengthening the participation of Nigerians in the oil and gas sector.

The US is uncomfortable with the participation of China in the Nigeria oil and gas sector as it has often tried to fend off competition from the Asian nation. The American civil society, which had predicted the breakup of Nigeria in 2015, has been active in feeding the US government and public with jaundiced information on developments in Nigeria. It is a known fact that once the US and its allies begin to cry more than the bereaved, there must be something more fundamental.

These have veritable weapons to fight the GEJ administration and they have latched on the mantra of change by the APC, to embark on massive campaign of disinformation on the accomplishments of the administration.



MEDIA PROPAGANDA

We have seen the campaign of calumny waged against the Jonathan administration by Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, Prof. Charles Soludo, Prof. Wole Soyinka, Dr. Oby Ezekwesili, which are attempts to discredit the Jonathan administration before the local and international community.

Encouraged by the local propaganda by the opposition party and the local media, there has been a sustained negative media exposure on Nigeria. There has been massive negative publication of events in Nigeria to discredit the administration and make it unpopular within and outside the country, using powerful channels like the New York Times, the Economist, CNN and other western media.

The abduction of over 200 girls from Government Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State Nigeria. provided them with the cannon to fire the GEJ administration.

The western media latched on the incident to give Boko Haram the maximum international publicity it desired. Nigeria was forced to openly request for military assistance and expertise in intelligence gathering in order to rescue the girls.

This turned out to be a diplomatic ground standing; several countries that offered assistance and co-operation were prevailed upon to sit back, perhaps only France and the West African countries of Benin, Niger, Cameroon and Chad, that launched multinational military action, have been helpful.

The African Union has offered commitment of 7, 500 foot soldiers, to combat a local terror group that is part of the global coalition of jihadist terror network. Meanwhile, several of our servicemen and women, have been lost in the combat, villages razed, thousands displaced, yet, what the opposition party, APC, and international collaborators have done is to promote the cause of Boko Harm to shut down Nigeria.. Boko Haram is not a convention fighting group and its theatre of operation is not defined territorially. The group has struck soft targets with ease because of its mode of operation. It is a diffused insurgency organization whose terror tactics is to strike when least expected. The complexity of fighting Boko Haram is such that the group has ideological sympathies within and outside government, within the military services, local communities, etc.

This, therefore, requires a massive patriotic support for the troops in conflict theatre, Federal Government has been portrayed as ineffective as the opposition party tried to capitalize on the state of insecurity to advance its political interest. Even the US which has not succeeded in downgrading the fighting capacity of ISIS in the Middle East in the last 10 months has remained patently critical of the efforts to contain Boko Haram.

Washington has hidden under the guise of respect for the human rights of Boko Haram to refuse to sell military hardware to Nigeria, to fight the group. It prevailed on its allies to halt the sale of weapons to Nigeria.

The West African nation had to turn to Russia, China and India to source for arms to reverse the advances of Boko Harm.

Nigeria’s Ambassador to the United States, Prof. Adefuye, did not hide Nigeria’s disappointment when he addressed   the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington last year, criticizing the Obama administration for relying on the option of the US civil society groups to formulate its policy on Nigeria.



ANTI CORRUPTION AND REGIME CHANGE CAMPAIGN

Every act of sabotage in fighting Boko Haram has been narrowed down to corruption. The opposition party has been presented as having the magic wand to smash the terror group in 24 hours and kill corruption in seven days just like creation was accomplished in seven days. It is natural that Nigerians should expect such magical performance and accept an avowed human-rights abuser and an anti-democratic despot like Buhari, as the man to lead Nigeria in the 21st century.

The recent Transparency International Report has shown that the GEJ administration has performed better than the Obasanjo and Buhari administrations in terms of fighting corruption.



The economy which Buhari told CNN being killed by corruption is the largest in Africa and the third most preferred destination for global investment. The endemic corruption in the agricultural sector has been curbed. The corruption in the power sector is on the way out with privatization.

Apart from the recent PWC report of the forensic audit report on the NNPC, the GEJ administration has rated better than the Obasanjo and Buhari administrations in fighting corruption. In a liberal democracy where the rule of law is the pillar of sustaining the growth of democracy, the war against corruption must follow legal process. The GEJ administration has not treated corruption with kid gloves at the same time. It cannot use extra-judicial procedures to clamp people into jail as the opposition party is presenting its approach to fighting corruption.

THE REGIME CHANGE AGENDA

Let it be stated here that the opposition against the Jonathan administration is not about the performance or non-performance of the Federal Government in the past six years.

The opposition has done nothing to fight against corruption or insecurity as has been presented to the Nigerians and the world.

Rather, there is a grand conspiracy by some fifth columnist in the local and international arena, to bring about a regime change in Nigeria by discrediting the forth coming election which they believe must be won by the opposition party at all costs.

The proponent of this regime change agenda is promoting the win at all cost mentality which is similar to the “do-or-die” garrison democracy of the Obasanjo era.

They have threatened to form a parallel government if the election does not follow the win at all costs mentality of the opposition party. They have been promoting the idea of interim government to create the impression that the Jonathan administration is working towards the elongation of its tenure if PDP fails to win the presidential election. In spite of the rebuttal of the idea of an interim government by Jonathan, the promoters have continued to drum up the idea with the aim of discrediting the GEJ administration.

The opposition party knows that it is relatively new on the national political stage, it knows that it does not have the resources and structure to withstand, let alone defeat the ruling PDP; its strategy has been to employ all manner of subterfuge, ranging from outright falsehood to vile propaganda, blackmail and intimidation of prospective voters, misinformation and manipulation of the social and mass media, to create an atmosphere of chaos, with the hope that it will get the international community to buy into such cheap political antics.

Nigeria’s electoral process is guided by rules and those who want to participate in the power game must play by the rules. Those who want to observe or support the democratic process in Nigeria must shun partisan interest and respect the sensibilities of Nigerians.

No country, no matter how weak or small, will welcome unwholesome meddling in its internal affairs. The lessons and mistakes of Iraq, Libya, Syria should warn Nigerians and these carpet baggers, the consequences of their plot.



*Nwoko is a former member of House of Representatives and a solicitor of the Supreme Court of England and Wales.